Pierina Pighi Bel

PhD Student LAILAC

Summary:

Between the 2016 US presidential election and the 2020 one, there was an evident growth in the Republican vote in counties with large Latino populations. At the same time, Latino voters have increased in crucial states like Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. What do these changes mean for the 2024 election?

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We are close to the United States Presidential election again. As is usual, every four years, the media puts a lot of attention on who the “Latino vote” is going to favor: the republican Donald Trump or the democrat Kamala Harris? They build a debate around it even though there is no actual “Latino” vote understood as a block, given the vast diversity and heterogeneity of the Hispanic or Latino population due to circumstances like nationality, race, gender, education, religion, etc.

However, there are some essential facts that analysts can take into account regarding the voting trends of the largest racial or ethnic minority in the US. According to the US Census Bureau’s latest data, until 2022, they made up 19.1% of the total country’s population, and about 36.2 million of them are eligible to vote in the 2024 election (which will make around 14.7% of all eligible voters), according to the Pew Research Center.

Another fact, supported by different data, is the Latinos growing preference for the Republican party.

Statistics coming from the Latino Data Project at the Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies (CLACLS) at the City University of New York (CUNY) show that there was a clear increase in the Republican vote between the 2016 presidential election and the 2020 one in US counties with large Latino populations. Although the Democrat Joe Biden won in 2020, the growth of the vote for the Republican Donald Trump, his rival, was more significant than that for the Democrats in these constituencies.

In the 2020 elections, of the 101 US counties in which more than half (50%) of all residents were Latinos, Donald Trump won 66 (65.3% of all counties). He increased his number of votes by 54% from the 2016 election, according to the report “Voting Changes between the 2016 and 2020 Presidential Elections in Counties Across the United States with Large Latino-Origin Populations” (2021) by Professor Laird Bergad, founder of the Latino Data Project (LDP).

These counties were in Texas, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, Washington, Colorado, Kansas, and New York. In 2020, Biden received 29% more votes than candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 in these same divisions, a much lower increase than his rival’s party.

Besides these results, of the 35 counties with the largest Latino populations in the US (different from the 101 previous counties), Democrats won 33 (94%). However, total Republican votes in these counties increased by 43% between 2016 and 2020, while votes for the Democratic candidate rose by only 31%, according to the same report. These areas were distributed in the states of California, Texas, Arizona, Florida, New Mexico, New York, Illinois, and Nevada.

The report recognizes that “it is impossible” to attribute the Republican vote increase precisely to the Latinos “because there is no data on voting by race/ethnicity in these counties,” which means that the Republican growth could have also been related to other races/ethnicities.

However, the data “suggest that support for the Republican presidential candidate increased significantly in counties with large Latino populations despite the xenophobic, anti-immigrant, white supremacist, and racist policies which were the central issues of his campaign.”

One could ask if “despite” is an accurate word for this situation, as there is also a lot of racism, anti-immigration rhetoric, and discrimination in Latin America. And some Latinos don’t necessarily leave these practices behind when they immigrate to the US. According to a Pew Research Center Survey published in May 2022, “Latinos experience discrimination from other Latinos about as much as from non-Latinos.”

The results show that “about 41% of Latinos with darker skin say they have experienced discrimination or unfair treatment by another Latino, while 25% with lighter skin color say the same” and that “48% of Hispanics say they hear racist or racially insensitive comments or jokes from Hispanic friends and family about other Hispanics.”

There is also more data on the shift towards Republicans. The Latino Data Project report also states that “exit polling data for the November 2020 election indicate increases in Latino support for the Republican candidate between 2016 and 2020 in some parts of the United States, especially in Florida and the counties bordering Mexico in the U.S. Southwestern states.”

While historically more Latinos have voted Democratic, “it’s not 100% true that they vote overwhelmingly Democratic,” said Professor Laird Bergad, author of the CLACLS’ Latino Data Project report, early in the campaign. What have the Republicans been doing to start attracting more Latinos? How will this impact the 2024 elections?

Factors that favor Republicans

This shift happened despite the Republican Party and Donald Trump’s anti-Hispanic rhetoric. One reason could be that Latinos tend to vote more through an economic lens than through a racial-ethnics lens, explained Mike Madrid, an expert on Latino voting trends, co-host of the podcast “The Latino Vote,” and author of the upcoming book “The Latino Century,” in March. They want to hear more about the economy and jobs than about other topics like immigration or racial issues, he added.

Scott Keeter, a senior survey advisor at the Pew Research Center, agreed with Madrid that “the state of the US economy, particularly inflation,” is a “persistent concern” among Latino voters due to the large share of them who are “less well-off financially.” 

According to the latest Pew Research Center survey on Latino voters preferences, 85% of this group’s registered voters said that the economy was the most important issue for them in the elections. 

This survey gives Harris a tiny lead in this issue among registered Latino voters: 53% said they are very or somewhat confident she would make good decisions on economic policy. In comparison, 50% said the same about Trump. 

When asked to compare both candidates or who they think would do a better job on the economy, regardless of who they will vote for, 47% of the likely Hispanic voters chose Trump, compared to 41% of Hispanics who preferred Harris, according to a September New York Times/Siena College poll.

In this sense, Professor Bergad noted that “the economy under Biden has been booming, unemployment is at its historical lowest (below 4% for two years), the stock market is at its highest.” 

“But the average voter would say ‘things were better under Trump. The Republican Party is very effective at getting messages across. Those messages may be complete lies. But if you watch Fox News, you think what they say is true. Democrats seem to be missing the boat to get their message across. Of course, we can’t say that across the board. It’s not the case in California or New York,” said Bergad.

Educational divide

Many other factors could weigh into the Latino shift towards the Republicans. According to Mike Madrid, one might be the “educational divide” in the US.

“College-educated voters are increasingly voting with the Democratic party, and non-college-educated voters are increasingly voting with the Republican party. 65% of voters in the country don’t have a college degree, with Latinos is even greater than that. Latinos make up the fastest growing group of non-college-educated workers,” he said early in the campaign.  

Keeter, from the Pew Research Center, also mentioned a “broad realignment of the electorate by educational achievement.”

“The movement of working class and non-college Americans to greater support for Republican candidates (Trump in particular) is seen among all racial and ethnic groups,” he said. “But it may be especially impactful for Hispanic Americans because a larger than average share of them are working class or non-college educated.”

According to the Pew Research Center, only 21% of Hispanic eligible voters have a bachelor’s degree or higher education. However, the educational realignment has not yet produced a majority of Latinos leaning toward the Republican party. 

Even with the academic divide, the share of Latinos who say they would prefer Harris is still more prominent on both sides, the latest Pew Research Center survey shows. 

Self-perceived ethnicity or race

Another element impacting voting trends is race or identity self-perception. Self-identification as Hispanic or Latino has decreased throughout generations. “Second, third, fourth generation Latinos don’t see themselves as racially distinct and are voting now with their non-Hispanic white peers,” said Madrid. When asked if they see themselves as white, Madrid replied, “Increasingly, yes.”

By 2017, 97% of first-generation Hispanic or Latino immigrants identified themselves as such, but this self-identification dropped to 77% by the third generation, according to data collected by the Pew Research Center. 

How are all these factors coming into play during this presidential election? Will the Latino shift toward the Republican party continue to grow in the 2024 elections? If it goes on, will it favor Trump?

Latino support for Harris

Not necessarily, according to the September survey published by The New York Times and Siena College, and applied to likely voters after the first Harris-Trump debate. The results show a technical tie at the federal level (they change in some states). When broken down to results according to ethnicity, 51% of Hispanics said they would have voted for Harris, while 39% answered they would have voted for Trump if the election had been held on the day of the poll. Also, 37% of Hispanics considered themselves Democrats, while only 17% identified themselves as Republicans, a smaller group than those who claimed to be independents, 33%. 

Among registered voters, even a larger share of Latinos, 57%, said they would vote for Harris. In comparison, 39% said they would prefer Trump, according to a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in late August and early September on Latino voters’ preferences.

“Kamala Harris now has nearly the same support among Hispanics that Joe Biden had in the 2020 election. Biden had not been able to regain that level of support when he was still in the race,” said Scott Keeter, a senior survey advisor at the Pew Research Center.

But how relevant or significant is the “Latino” vote?

Latino voters increase in key US states

By 2022, there were already 13 US states with one million or more Hispanic residents: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas and Washington, according to US Census Bureau’s latest data.

And not only is the population large, but they are also registering more to vote. Historically, Latinos have shown low voting registration rates and even lower voting rates. In the 2022 midterm elections, only 37.9% of all eligible Latino voters actually voted, according to the report “Latino Voter Participation in the 2018 and 2022 Midterm Elections” by Bergad for the Latino Data Project.

“But in 2020, for the first time, the registration rate was above 60%,” said Professor Bergad (See “Latino Voter Registration and Participation Rates in the 2020 Presidential Election” report).

The percentage of eligible Latinos who actually voted also “rose to a historic high of 53.7%” in the 2020 election (compared to 47.3% in 2016). According to this report, most of them were US-born, young Latinos between 18 and 44 years old, and their votes accounted for 10.2% of all the votes.

 “What we seem to be finding here is that more and more Latinos are becoming involved in registration and voting,” Bergad added.

“The surge in registration and voting rates suggests that Latinos are poised to exert political influence in the U.S. commensurate with their population share. The presidential election of 2024 may confirm that the often-called ‘sleeping giant’ of U.S. electoral politics is ready to emerge in full force,” says the report.

Mike Madrid also thinks Latinos might be decisive in the 2024 presidential election.

“They used to be just in California, Texas, and Florida. Now, they are everywhere, virtually in every battleground state: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Tennessee, Nevada, and Arizona,” he says.

According to the report “Latino Voter Participation in the 2018 and 2022 Midterm Elections,” between the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, Latino voters increased by 118% in Michigan and 84.2% in Georgia. In Pennsylvania, they grew by 26%. 

These three states were vital in the 2020 presidential elections. Georgia voted for a Democrat after over 20 years (the last time was in 1992). In Pennsylvania and Michigan (part of what was called the “blue wall”), Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020.

“One state can be carried by 10,000 votes,” said Bergad. If the increasing voting trend continues, “of course they (Latino voters) can make a difference. They can be significant in a very close election.”

According to the September New York Times/Siena College poll, 50% of the likely electorate in Pennsylvania said they would vote for Harris, 4% more than those who would prefer Trump. However, Trump is leading the polls in Arizona and Georgia by similar margins.

The race seems too close to know how the Hispanics could influence it by now. Also, Viviana Rivera-Burgos, professor of Political Science at Baruch College (CUNY), wonders if the Latino shift toward Republicans is a long-term tendency that will continue this year and in the following elections or if it is something that we only saw in 2020. We have plenty of time to find out.